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JULY 22, 2010     VOLUME 8      ISSUE 15
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Q: As sales director for a large pharma company, I’ve run into trouble lately with inaccurate sales forecasts. Do you have any “best practice” suggestions for increasing sales forecast accuracy?

A: Forecasts typically drive the most important strategic decisions that a pharma company will make, thus inaccurate forecasts will often lead to misguided decisions. One approach to increasing accuracy is to include these four critical steps as part of your forecasting process:

  1. Aligning sales and marketing forecasts
  2. Choosing the appropriate forecasting methodology
  3. Validating assumptions
  4. Tracking performance and assumptions

The first step is to make sure that brand forecasts (typically developed in marketing) align with forecasts developed for sales. If there are divergent forecasts, it is critical to determine the reasons for these differences. Are different assumptions driving the forecasts? Are different data sets being used? Is there a portion of the forecast that is not being driven directly by the sales force?

Another critical component in ensuring forecast accuracy is determining the appropriate forecasting methodology (this can also be a reason why sales and marketing forecasts are different). Some things to consider when determining the appropriate methodology are:

  1. Should we use a top down or bottom up approach?
  2. Have we accounted for market events?
  3. Have we forecasted sales for competitive products (not just our own product)?
  4. Have we accounted for reimbursement and managed care influences?
  5. Have we accounted for competitive share of voice and effectiveness of our own sales resources?

Next comes one of the most important factors in ensuring forecast accuracy: validating assumptions. Any forecast is going to have assumptions built into it.  It’s critical to know what the assumptions are and to understand how confident you are in them. 

Last but not least is tracking. Diligent tracking of sales forecast performance is imperative. The sooner you realize that you are off target on your forecast, the more time you will have to take corrective action. When tracking, it’s not only important to track sales to forecasts, but also the accuracy of your assumptions.  If you are diverging from your forecast, is there enough time in the year to make up the difference?

Chris Donald, Director-Analytical Products, Health Market Science
Tim Kringel, Principal, Health Market Science

Join Tim Kringel and Chris Donald at the April 20-21 Synygy Sales Performance Conference for their session on  Increasing Visibility into the Sales Pipeline that will cover additional best practices for increasing sales forecast accuracy.

   

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Synygy is the largest and most experienced provider of sales performance management (SPM) software and services. These include SPM solutions for: sales compensation management (incentive compensation; rewards and recognition; and total compensation); sales communications management (sales portals; reports, dashboards, and analytics; and analyses, alerts and answers); sales goal management (territories and channels; quotas and objectives; and pipeline analysis and forecasting); and sales process management (recruiting, evaluating, and training; data repository and data processes; and workflow processes). Based in Chester, Pennsylvania, with extensive operations in Europe and Asia, Synygy has achieved 19 continuous years of success. www.synygy.com
 
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